- 미국·이스라엘-이란 전쟁 관련 인식 - Gallup International 다국가 조사 #중동
- 조사일 : 2026/03/31
- [GallupReport(20260410)_IranSnapPoll_GIA.pdf] 다운로드
● 2026년 4월 10일(금) 공개 | 문의: 02-3702-2571/2621/2622
미국·이스라엘-이란 전쟁 관련 인식: Gallup International 다국가 조사
→ 한국 교차집계표 다운로드(PDF)
→ 15개국 조사 결과 전체 보기 & 파일
/ 세계 조사 개요
- 2026년 3월 15개국 성인 총 12,909명 CAWI/CATI(웹조사/전화조사)(문항별 참여국 상이)
/ 한국 조사 개요
· 조사기간: 2026년 3월 19~26일
· 표본추출: 사회연구패널★, 자원자 기반 온라인패널에서 성별·연령대·지역 할당 추출
(한국갤럽이 무선전화 RDD 방식으로 구축·운영하는 확률 기반 조사패널)
· 응답방식: CAWI(조사대상자에게 문자메시지·이메일 발송, 자기기입식 웹조사)
· 조사대상: 전국 만 18~79세 1,121명
· 표본오차: ±2.9%포인트(확률 추출 가정 시, 95% 신뢰수준)
· 조사 요청 대비 응답 완료율: 14.0%(총 8,017명 중 1,121명)
· 의뢰처: 한국갤럽-Gallup International 자체 조사
/ 조사 항목(화살표(→) 옆 단어 클릭하면 해당 위치로 이동)
→ 15개국 & 한국 조사 결과 요약
→ (영문) Gallup International commentary
→ 한국 교차집계표
· 이번 전쟁에서 지지하는 진영 | 신체적, 재정적, 정서적 측면 개인 피해
· 예상 승전국 | 전쟁 발발 책임 소재 | 이란 최고 지도자 암살
· 자국 정부, 주요국 전쟁 대응 평가
· 전쟁 결과 예상: 이란 정부 교체 성패, 전후 이란/중동/이스라엘 상황 전쟁 지속 기간
→ 한국 응답자 특성표
요약
[지지하는 진영] 15개국 시민 60% '어느 쪽도 지지하지 않는다', 양 진영 지지 각각 16%
· 파키스탄 79%, 터키 36%는 이란 지지; 미국·이스라엘 지지세 높은 나라 없어
[전쟁 영향] 개인 재정 측면에서 '중대한 피해 예상' 53%, '경미한 피해' 33%, '피해 없을 것' 9%
[예상 승전국] '둘 다 승자는 아닐 것' 38%, '미국·이스라엘 연합' 28%, '이란' 13%
[전쟁 발발 책임] '이란' 15% - '미국·이스라엘 동등 책임' 44%, '미국' 24%, '이스라엘' 12%
[전쟁 기간] '수개월간 길게 지속될 것' 59%, '몇 주 안에 끝날 것' 26%
· 미국과 이스라엘이 원하는 대로 이란 정부 교체될 것으로 보지 않아
· 어느 한 쪽 편들 수 없고, 끝나더라도 승자 없이 상흔만 남는 전쟁 예상
· 빨리 끝날 것 같지 않은 전쟁, 장기화에 따른 경제적 여파 우려
[한국] 대체로 15개국 평균 수준, 일부 주제에는 정치적 성향별 견해차 큰 편
· 성향 보수층 절반가량(46%) 미국·이스라엘 연합 지지; 중도층 22%, 진보층 11%
· 보수층 42%는 전쟁 발발 책임이 이란에 있다고 봐; 중도층 22%, 진보층 8%
──────────────────
Iran Conflict: Public Opinion Leaves U.S. Isolated
— Blamed for War, Little Faith in Outcomes, and Widespread Economic Concern
──────────────────
Publics Fear Economic Fallout (85%) and See No Quick End (59%)
— While 80% Blame USA/Israel, Most Refuse to Take Sides (60%)
The Gallup International Association has released findings from a new multi-country snap poll on the ongoing war involving the USA, Israel and Iran, revealing a striking global pattern: among those aware of the conflict, most people are unwilling to take sides, believe the war will lead to instability, doubt that regime change will succeed, expect a prolonged conflict, and widely see the USA and Israel as responsible for initiating the war.
The survey was conducted across 15 countries with a total sample of approximately 13,000 respondents.
This is the first multi-country snapshots of public opinion on the Iran conflict, captured in real time through a coordinated effort by professional pollsters. Gallup International Association has a legacy of conducting similar multi-country surveys at rapid pace to inform policy makers on what publics around the world are thinking as conflicts unfold.
Most Refuse to Take Sides (60%)
Across countries, the dominant public response is not support for either side, but distance. A clear majority, 60% say they support neither side, compared to 16% who support the USA–Israel coalition and 16% who support Iran.
Support for Iran is highest in Pakistan at 79%, followed by Turkey at 36%. Support for USA-Israel alliance is highest in Colombia at 30%, followed by Philippines (28%).
Many Blame the USA and Israel for starting the war (44% Equal Responsibility; 80% Combined Attribution)
On the question of responsibility, the most common global view is that the USA and Israel are equally responsible, cited by 44% of respondents. 24% blame the USA alone,12% blame Israel alone, while15% blame Iran. Taken together, 80% attribute responsibility at least partly to the USA and Israel.
Regime Change Widely Seen as Unlikely (47% Fail vs 21% Succeed)
Publics are skeptical that war will achieve one of its key potential objectives. 47% believe efforts to replace Iran’s government will fail, 21% believe they will succeed, 32% remain uncertain.
World Expects Turmoil (63% Iran Chaos; 60% Regional Instability; 69% Continued Threats to Israel)
Across outcomes, the global public expects instability. 63% expect chaos and internal strife in Iran, 60% believe the Middle East will become more unstable, 69% think Israel will continue to face external attacks.
A Long War is Expected (59% Say Many Months vs 26% Weeks)
59% expect the war to last many months, 26% expect it to end within weeks.
Economic Impact is Nearly Universal
53% expect strong financial harm, 33% expect minor financial harm, while only 9% expect no harm. Detailed findings can be found on Gallup International website.
Commentary from Gallup International Association team which led this first multi-country poll on Iran Conflict: This multi-country survey shows large majorities believe the United States and Israel have initiated a war that is unlikely to end soon, is not expected to lead to regime change, and is seen as causing significant economic harm without delivering greater security for Israel or stability in the Middle East. Across countries, including traditional allies, publics increasingly see the United States as standing alone in its narrative on the conflict. While they may not align with Iran, they are clearly not aligning with the U.S. either.
Methodology
The study was conducted by the Gallup International Association with a total sample of approximately 13,000 respondents across 15 countries. The survey covers a diverse set of countries, with an average sample of around 850 respondents per country. The findings are based on adults who reported being aware of the war. Data were collected using nationally representative approaches, employing a mix of online and telephone interviews depending on country context. In some countries, non-probability online panels were used; further details on these approaches are provided in the full methodology note. Data were weighted to reflect national population characteristics, and global results are computed as averages across countries. Fieldwork for the study was conducted between 5th March and 30th March 2026.
Note: Across the 15 countries covered in this study, nationally representative samples were achieved in 14 countries, while 1 country had more limited or non-national coverage due to methodological constraints in terms of sampling design.
Out of 15 countries, 8 used probability-based sampling, 5 used quota sampling, and 2 relied on non-probability samples. Here is list of countries with relevant methods used: Random Probability (8 countries): Croatia, Germany, Pakistan, Serbia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey; Quota Sampling (5 countries): Colombia, Japan, Portugal, Republic of Korea, and Spain; Non-Probability Sample (2 countries): Mexico and Philippines.
Given the use of non-probability sampling, a conventional margin of error is not reported, as it is not strictly applicable in such designs. Accordingly, the findings should be interpreted with appropriate caution and viewed as indicative of public sentiment rather than precise population estimates, particularly when making cross-country comparisons.
Note: Only Q1, Q2, Q5, and Q9 include data from all 15 participating countries. Other questions have partial country coverage and should be interpreted accordingly.
───
한국 교차집계표
───
한국 응답자 특성표
| ● 1947년 조지 갤럽 박사가 설립한 갤럽 인터내셔널(Gallup International Association)은 1977년부터 전 세계 회원사들이 매년 말 자국민을 대상으로 경제, 노동, 국제 관계 등 현안에 대한 인식과 새해 전망을 알아보는 〈End of Year Survey〉를 해왔습니다. 한국갤럽은 1979년부터 참여하고 있습니다. → Press release for the 120th Anniversary of Dr. George Gallup ● 현재 미국과 이스라엘이 이란을 상대로 전쟁 중인데요. 갤럽 인터내셔널이 2026년 3월 한국을 포함한 15개국 시민에게 이번 전쟁을 어떻게 보는지 물었습니다. |
미국·이스라엘-이란 전쟁 관련 인식: Gallup International 다국가 조사
→ 한국 교차집계표 다운로드(PDF)
→ 15개국 조사 결과 전체 보기 & 파일
/ 세계 조사 개요
- 2026년 3월 15개국 성인 총 12,909명 CAWI/CATI(웹조사/전화조사)(문항별 참여국 상이)
/ 한국 조사 개요
· 조사기간: 2026년 3월 19~26일
· 표본추출: 사회연구패널★, 자원자 기반 온라인패널에서 성별·연령대·지역 할당 추출
(한국갤럽이 무선전화 RDD 방식으로 구축·운영하는 확률 기반 조사패널)
· 응답방식: CAWI(조사대상자에게 문자메시지·이메일 발송, 자기기입식 웹조사)
· 조사대상: 전국 만 18~79세 1,121명
· 표본오차: ±2.9%포인트(확률 추출 가정 시, 95% 신뢰수준)
· 조사 요청 대비 응답 완료율: 14.0%(총 8,017명 중 1,121명)
· 의뢰처: 한국갤럽-Gallup International 자체 조사
/ 조사 항목(화살표(→) 옆 단어 클릭하면 해당 위치로 이동)
→ 15개국 & 한국 조사 결과 요약
→ (영문) Gallup International commentary
→ 한국 교차집계표
· 이번 전쟁에서 지지하는 진영 | 신체적, 재정적, 정서적 측면 개인 피해
· 예상 승전국 | 전쟁 발발 책임 소재 | 이란 최고 지도자 암살
· 자국 정부, 주요국 전쟁 대응 평가
· 전쟁 결과 예상: 이란 정부 교체 성패, 전후 이란/중동/이스라엘 상황 전쟁 지속 기간
→ 한국 응답자 특성표
요약
[지지하는 진영] 15개국 시민 60% '어느 쪽도 지지하지 않는다', 양 진영 지지 각각 16%
· 파키스탄 79%, 터키 36%는 이란 지지; 미국·이스라엘 지지세 높은 나라 없어
[전쟁 영향] 개인 재정 측면에서 '중대한 피해 예상' 53%, '경미한 피해' 33%, '피해 없을 것' 9%
[예상 승전국] '둘 다 승자는 아닐 것' 38%, '미국·이스라엘 연합' 28%, '이란' 13%
[전쟁 발발 책임] '이란' 15% - '미국·이스라엘 동등 책임' 44%, '미국' 24%, '이스라엘' 12%
[전쟁 기간] '수개월간 길게 지속될 것' 59%, '몇 주 안에 끝날 것' 26%
· 미국과 이스라엘이 원하는 대로 이란 정부 교체될 것으로 보지 않아
· 어느 한 쪽 편들 수 없고, 끝나더라도 승자 없이 상흔만 남는 전쟁 예상
· 빨리 끝날 것 같지 않은 전쟁, 장기화에 따른 경제적 여파 우려
[한국] 대체로 15개국 평균 수준, 일부 주제에는 정치적 성향별 견해차 큰 편
· 성향 보수층 절반가량(46%) 미국·이스라엘 연합 지지; 중도층 22%, 진보층 11%
· 보수층 42%는 전쟁 발발 책임이 이란에 있다고 봐; 중도층 22%, 진보층 8%
──────────────────
Iran Conflict: Public Opinion Leaves U.S. Isolated
— Blamed for War, Little Faith in Outcomes, and Widespread Economic Concern
──────────────────
Publics Fear Economic Fallout (85%) and See No Quick End (59%)
— While 80% Blame USA/Israel, Most Refuse to Take Sides (60%)
The Gallup International Association has released findings from a new multi-country snap poll on the ongoing war involving the USA, Israel and Iran, revealing a striking global pattern: among those aware of the conflict, most people are unwilling to take sides, believe the war will lead to instability, doubt that regime change will succeed, expect a prolonged conflict, and widely see the USA and Israel as responsible for initiating the war.
The survey was conducted across 15 countries with a total sample of approximately 13,000 respondents.
This is the first multi-country snapshots of public opinion on the Iran conflict, captured in real time through a coordinated effort by professional pollsters. Gallup International Association has a legacy of conducting similar multi-country surveys at rapid pace to inform policy makers on what publics around the world are thinking as conflicts unfold.
Most Refuse to Take Sides (60%)
Across countries, the dominant public response is not support for either side, but distance. A clear majority, 60% say they support neither side, compared to 16% who support the USA–Israel coalition and 16% who support Iran.
Support for Iran is highest in Pakistan at 79%, followed by Turkey at 36%. Support for USA-Israel alliance is highest in Colombia at 30%, followed by Philippines (28%).
Many Blame the USA and Israel for starting the war (44% Equal Responsibility; 80% Combined Attribution)
On the question of responsibility, the most common global view is that the USA and Israel are equally responsible, cited by 44% of respondents. 24% blame the USA alone,12% blame Israel alone, while15% blame Iran. Taken together, 80% attribute responsibility at least partly to the USA and Israel.
Regime Change Widely Seen as Unlikely (47% Fail vs 21% Succeed)
Publics are skeptical that war will achieve one of its key potential objectives. 47% believe efforts to replace Iran’s government will fail, 21% believe they will succeed, 32% remain uncertain.
World Expects Turmoil (63% Iran Chaos; 60% Regional Instability; 69% Continued Threats to Israel)
Across outcomes, the global public expects instability. 63% expect chaos and internal strife in Iran, 60% believe the Middle East will become more unstable, 69% think Israel will continue to face external attacks.
A Long War is Expected (59% Say Many Months vs 26% Weeks)
59% expect the war to last many months, 26% expect it to end within weeks.
Economic Impact is Nearly Universal
53% expect strong financial harm, 33% expect minor financial harm, while only 9% expect no harm. Detailed findings can be found on Gallup International website.
Commentary from Gallup International Association team which led this first multi-country poll on Iran Conflict: This multi-country survey shows large majorities believe the United States and Israel have initiated a war that is unlikely to end soon, is not expected to lead to regime change, and is seen as causing significant economic harm without delivering greater security for Israel or stability in the Middle East. Across countries, including traditional allies, publics increasingly see the United States as standing alone in its narrative on the conflict. While they may not align with Iran, they are clearly not aligning with the U.S. either.
Methodology
The study was conducted by the Gallup International Association with a total sample of approximately 13,000 respondents across 15 countries. The survey covers a diverse set of countries, with an average sample of around 850 respondents per country. The findings are based on adults who reported being aware of the war. Data were collected using nationally representative approaches, employing a mix of online and telephone interviews depending on country context. In some countries, non-probability online panels were used; further details on these approaches are provided in the full methodology note. Data were weighted to reflect national population characteristics, and global results are computed as averages across countries. Fieldwork for the study was conducted between 5th March and 30th March 2026.
Note: Across the 15 countries covered in this study, nationally representative samples were achieved in 14 countries, while 1 country had more limited or non-national coverage due to methodological constraints in terms of sampling design.
Out of 15 countries, 8 used probability-based sampling, 5 used quota sampling, and 2 relied on non-probability samples. Here is list of countries with relevant methods used: Random Probability (8 countries): Croatia, Germany, Pakistan, Serbia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey; Quota Sampling (5 countries): Colombia, Japan, Portugal, Republic of Korea, and Spain; Non-Probability Sample (2 countries): Mexico and Philippines.
Given the use of non-probability sampling, a conventional margin of error is not reported, as it is not strictly applicable in such designs. Accordingly, the findings should be interpreted with appropriate caution and viewed as indicative of public sentiment rather than precise population estimates, particularly when making cross-country comparisons.
Note: Only Q1, Q2, Q5, and Q9 include data from all 15 participating countries. Other questions have partial country coverage and should be interpreted accordingly.
───
한국 교차집계표
───
한국 응답자 특성표